FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News spot gold fell sharply on Friday (March 9), the US market hit a low of 1312.90 US dollars after the bottom of the gold price bottomed out, a V-shaped rebound, the intraday sharply rose, the highest search to 1324.00 USD/oz, return to the 1320 mark. The US non-agricultural employment population announced in February increased by 313,000, far exceeding the expected increase of 200,000. The unemployment rate in February recorded a 4.1% higher than expected, but the salary growth rate in February was less than expected. US January wholesale sales rate fell by 1.1%, less than the previous value and expectations, but the US wholesale inventories rose by 0.8% in January, exceeding the previous value and expectations, the largest increase in five months, indicating that inventory investment may raise The first quarter of the US economy.
In the peripheral market, the US dollar is also in a shock mode due to the non-agricultural release, but it is still stabilizing above the 90 mark. US stocks rose strongly, and the three major stock indexes all rose more than 1%. Crude oil also rebounded from the downturn. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.1, down 0.11% to 90.03. The Dow rose 1.05% to 25,157.42; the S&P 500 rose 1.06% to 2,788.12; the Nasdaq rose 1.19% to 7,516.31. US oil rose 2.28% to US$61.52/barrel, and oil oil rose 2.23% to US$65.09/barrel.
Gold is under greater pressure on Friday. As the most important data of this month, the salary data of the non-agricultural employment report is less than expected, which means that the inflation will rise less than expected, but the employment report is still conducive to the US monetary policy hawks camp, and raising interest rates is an urgent matter. According to the CME “Federal Watchâ€, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%-1.75% in March this year is 88.8%, and the probability from June to the interval is 22%. In a subsequent speech, the Federal Reserve Evans said that the employment report is very strong; it is really good news, has not caused salary pressure, hope to see more strong salary growth, and expects the US economic growth rate will be 3% this year. He believes that he can wait until the middle of the year to raise interest rates again. This year, he may raise interest rates two to four times. In addition, in the overnight news, the news that US President Trump will meet with Kim Jong-un will be heard, although some people doubt whether they can really meet. This news has a restrained demand for hedging, and it is also bad for gold and silver.
For the March gold trend, Seekingalpha analyst Clif Droke said on Friday that gold prices continue to consolidate, due to favorable factors (the US new tariff panic) and negative factors (stock market rally), the gold price broke through its recent transactions The latest attempts at the interval have had an adverse effect. However, as we discussed in the previous comments, this spring, there is still hope for the gold prospects this spring, and it is expected that the price of gold will eventually break the recent trading range. Technically, the gold price has not yet reached the 15-day moving average (currently cut at $1325.81 per ounce), and only this breakthrough can confirm that the rebound in the next 1-4 weeks has started. At the same time, gold's close relative, silver, is still below the 15-day moving average, which is another sign that the short-term trend of gold has not yet turned into the upside. From this analysis, if the price of gold cannot break through the 15-day moving average, it will remain weak in the short term. If it can break through and stabilize above it, the price of gold will turn upwards, and the upside resistance will be at 1330 and 1340, followed by the previous high. $1,365.90 per ounce.
US non-agricultural strong in February exceeded expectations but salary growth is still ç‘•ç–µ
Data show that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 313,000 in February, the market is expected to increase by 205,000, the previous value increased by 200,000; the unemployment rate in the United States in February was 4.1%, the lowest since December 2000, expected to be 4.1. %, the previous value is 4.1%. The US Department of Labor also revised the number of non-farm payrolls in January to an increase of 239,000.
(Source: Zerohedge, FX168 Financial Network
(Source: Market Watch, FX168 Financial Network)
However, the most eye-catching salary growth rate is less than expected: the average monthly hourly wage rate in the United States increased by 0.1% in January, and is expected to increase by 0.2%. The previous value was revised to increase by 0.3%; however, the average annual hourly wage rate in the United States rose by 2.6% in December. It is expected to increase by 2.8%, and the previous value is revised to increase by 2.8%.
(Source: Zerohedge, FX168 Financial Network)
According to Fed observation journalist Matthew Boesler, February was a big month for job creation, but the most important thing was the slowdown in wage growth, which fell to 2.6% in February after falling 2.8% in January.
Senior economists at Bloomberg pointed out that although the acceleration of employment growth is evident in all walks of life, the growth of the commodity production sector is outstanding (increased by 100,000), the highest monthly growth since 1998.
The Wall Street Journal said that the growth rate of non-agricultural employment in the United States has risen to a new high since July 2016, and the unemployment rate has remained at a 17-year low for five consecutive months. The tightening of the job market should push up the growth rate of wages, but the growth rate of wages in February has slowed down.
After nine consecutive months of economic expansion last year, economic growth seems to be slowing so far this year. Consumer spending is lower and financial markets are more volatile, and economists expect economic growth to slow to a 2% downturn in the first quarter.
Luke Bartholomew, investment strategist at Aberdeen Standards Investment, said: “The overall figures are huge, but wages seem to be important. It seems to be a bit like revenge for the incredible high wages of last month.â€
But Bartholomew said that putting wage growth together with previous data also means "the Fed will have to consider raising the dot matrix."
Outlook outlook
Seekingalpha published an analysis and outlook of analyst Clif Droke on the outlook for the gold market. The main points of his views are as follows:
First, gold is still subject to the interaction of multiple factors. Second, although the gold bulls are not yet dominant, the possibility of winning the bulls this spring is increasing. Third, strong industrial prices and strong demand from China still constitute an important support for gold.
Gold prices continue to consolidate, with positive factors (the US new tariff panic) and bearish factors (stock market rally) brought together, adversely affecting the latest attempts by gold prices to break through its recent trading range. However, as we discussed in the previous comments, this spring, there is still hope for the gold prospects this spring, and it is expected that the price of gold will eventually break the recent trading range.
Despite the latest changes in fund managers' attitudes toward gold, the recent strength of the US stock market has weighed on the market's interest in gold. Gold prices were lower this week, as the skeleton rose and the dollar rose, putting pressure on gold.
Technically, the gold price has not yet reached the 15-day moving average (currently cut at $1325.81 per ounce), and only this breakthrough can confirm that the rebound in the next 1-4 weeks has started. At the same time, gold's close relative, silver, is still below the 15-day moving average, which is another sign that the short-term trend of gold has not yet turned into the upside.
Another factor that needs to confirm the short-term neutral trend of gold is that the US dollar index fell below the 15-day moving average. If the US dollar index effectively falls below the moving average, this will not only make the gold price rise, but also indicate that investors bought last week. The dollar, while the stock market has been sold, is over, as inflation concerns have once again become a top priority. At present, the biggest ally of gold is the continued weakness of the US dollar.
For now, I recommend conservative gold and gold ETF traders to continue to wait and see the price of gold. Before starting any new trading position, you need to confirm the technical breakthrough of the gold price on the 15-day moving average (current cut is at $1325.81 per ounce).
At 00:48 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1323.00 per ounce, up $1.50, or 0.12%.
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