Time Weekly reporter Liu Dingfa from Guangzhou
When I was on a business trip to Beijing, Xiao Li forgot to bring her wallet, but she did not expect to take a taxi from the high-speed rail station to Didi, from the star hotel to the ramen noodle restaurant, pancake stall and canteen in Chengzhong Village. Small pieces of paper can be successfully paid, and a week's itinerary does not require cash at all.
The use of Xiao Li’s trip to Beijing simply changed the banknotes into electronic form, and the real change depends on the digital currency, which is a brand new thing, a gene that is inherently subversive.
As a product of currency innovation and upgrading, digital currency can not only reduce the high cost of traditional banknote issuance and circulation, but also enhance the convenience and transparency of economic trading activities. In the eyes of IMF Managing Director Lagarde, this is something that can bring the financial industry into the "beautiful new world."
In the global central bank's research on digital currency, the Chinese central bank is at the forefront. Since 2014, the People's Bank of China has set up a dedicated research team to conduct in-depth research on digital currency issuance and business operation framework, key technologies, distribution and circulation environment, and legal issues. New progress has been made in the past few years.
However, if things are profitable, they will have a disadvantage, as will monetary innovation. On June 19, the People's Bank of China issued a reminder that some companies used the central bank to issue digital currency in the name of the central bank, and many agencies were suspected of pyramid schemes and fraud.
"The core essence of digital currency lies in the rules. If central banks widely implement digital currency, it means that money has anchors, cannot be spammed, exchange rate differences disappear, and the impact of monetary policy on the economy will be minimized." Zhang Chao, a researcher at Taihe Think Tank Time Weekly reporter said. Professor Zhang Chao from the "father of the euro" Professor Mundell, is also a researcher at the National Monetary Research Institute of Renmin University of China.
Zhang Chao further explained that this means that the current US dollar-based international monetary system will be subverted and replaced with a new system.
Digital currency traceability
The history of human currency keeps moving forward. The primitive society used shells, the feudal society used gold, silver and copper coins. After the industrial revolution, the gold-based pounds were used. After the Brinton forest system, the central banks led by the central banks, the euro, the renminbi and so on.
The birth of digital currency dates back to around 2008.
In the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, financial collapse and corporate failures. According to the analysis of the German Central Bank and the Berlenberg Bank, the damage caused by the crisis to the world economy reached 8 trillion euros, of which the loss of the United States is equivalent to 11% of GDP in 2012, and the loss of Germany is equivalent to the GDP of 2012. 19%.
It is still the big problem that has plagued the society for hundreds of years: How can the human economic and financial system get rid of the impact of the economic cycle and the currency cycle?
However, in Kenya, this unique financial system, which is almost the poorest country in the world, is completely immune to this global financial crisis.
Kenya is too poor, too poor to be able to build a bank in the country 601939, but because people are working outside, they need to constantly send money to the relatives of the village, so there is "M-PESA."
This is a product launched by Kenyan telecom operator SAFARICOM. Mobile phone users registered in their network can recharge their phone bills. After that, they only need to send text messages to transfer, pay or withdraw the money. The telecom operators have network outlets covering the whole country and can provide services for users. “M-PESA†was launched in 2007. By 2010, more than half of Kenyans have used it. By 2012, the number of users has reached 15 million.
In 2009, a man named Nakamoto founded a more rigorous technical system, which is the digital currency based on blockchain technology.
In the traditional monetary system, people hold the paper printed by the central bank because of trust, and use it as money to buy things. The amount of paper that people hold is recorded in the bank's books. The value of this paper is ultimately controlled by the central bank. Decide; when the funds are transferred, you need to tell the bank first, then the bank will go to the operation, and then the money can go to another person; Kenya’s “M-PESAâ€, although letting people get rid of the bank, still depends on the telecom operator. Central node.
But in digital currency, the books are kept in sync with all network nodes. The amount of money people have and the amount of money people transfer to others is witnessed by the entire network system. This eliminates the need for a central node to record and transfer.
Since there is no central node, the generation of digital currency is not issued by the central bank. The total number of shares and the speed of issuance are not changed according to any authority.
The most obvious change is that cross-border remittances are easier. Under the traditional monetary system, the confirmation and policy restrictions between different banks need to waste at least 3-5 days.
"For some people, this is a frightening future," Lagarde pointed out, but she chose to use the sentence in Shakespeare's "Storm" to describe the mood, "magical! Beautiful new world!" De wrote in the article "Financial Technology: The Beautiful New World of the Financial Industry."
According to statistics, by 2016, the number of global digital currencies has grown to 656. At present, the total market value of global digital currencies has exceeded 100 billion US dollars.
Central bank attitudes reversed
After the digital currency was aggressively developed for several years, the attitudes of central banks and governments showed a dramatic reversal and were shifting from defensive to offensive.
In August 2014, the Russian government issued a strict ban on digital currency. This criticized bill stipulates that both Russian companies and citizens will be fined if they are found to have issued, created or deliberately disseminated information about the production or operation of digital currencies.
Since then, Russia’s attitude has slowly changed subtly. In 2016, officials of Russian financial regulators announced that Russia is planning to create its own digital currency and ban the use of other digital currencies.
In June 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin summoned the founder of the digital currency “Ethereum†and said that “the digital economy is essentially the basis for creating a new business modelâ€. The deputy governor of the Russian central bank also announced at the same time that it is now the right time for Russia to introduce legal digital currency.
"This is a trend. It is unrealistic to shut down the country." Zhang Chao, a researcher at Taihe Think Tank, told the Times Weekly reporter.
The Bank of Japan’s response rate is also very fast. Around 2013-2014, the Bank of Japan and the government's external calibre in digital currency were: strengthening supervision, cracking down on criminal organizations' money laundering and drug trafficking, and planning to introduce regulations. Even at the end of 2016, the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor said that the central bank did not have any plans to issue digital currency.
But by 2017, the Bank of Japan seemed to be awakened by acupuncture, suddenly realized what it was, and an urgent turn. In March, Japan made a proposal to Russia to issue digital currency in disputed northern four islands instead of arguing whether to use the yen or ruble; in April, the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor announced that the central bank will issue a block-based block. The legal digital currency of the chain. In June, several major Japanese banks have begun testing the digital currency transfer business in China.
"Japan hopes to take the opportunity to change the dollar-dominated international monetary system. This is the long-cherished wish of the Japanese." Liu Junhong, director of the Center for Globalization Studies of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations and a Japanese expert, explained to the Times Weekly reporter.
"The technology of digital currency determines that its rules are certain and cannot be modified at will. If the central bank issues legal digital currency, it means that the quantity, size and pricing of such currency are determined by rules, and cannot be arbitrarily changed by any authority. This means that every currency has an anchor. This subverts the current dollar-dominated international monetary system." Zhang Chao told the Times Weekly reporter.
"Because the rules are fixed, the exchange rate between the digital currencies issued by different central banks will be fixed, and there will be no room for speculation as it is now." Zhang Chao told the Times Weekly reporter that if several countries form alliances, they should be used internally. The currency exchange of digital currencies will be more direct to the existing dollar system.
The Fed’s focus on digital currency has not been relaxed. In January 2017, the Fed’s research team released a 60-page research report that conducted an in-depth study of digital currency and concluded that digital currency may change payments. Industry pattern.
Even if this is the case, even though many American economists have suggested that the Fed consider issuing digital currencies, Fed officials are still not relenting. The vice president of the Federal Reserve's Boston division said in April this year that the Fed will not issue digital currency using blockchain technology. Another Fed official said that digital currency will not phase out the dollar in the short term.
"This is a subversion of the US dollar. The Fed is definitely unwilling to accept it. But this is a process of gradual understanding. Everyone will gradually realize the drawbacks of spamming money. The trend of the times is so. If you are not willing to participate, you will be eliminated." Time Weekly reporter said, "If the Fed’s coinage taxation is broken, the advantages of the US financial institutions will be cut off. That is, in the future, the ability to determine the profitability of financial institutions will no longer be the ability to acquire money. It is a service."
China's central bank continues to push digital currency
On June 19, the People's Bank of China issued a reminder that some companies used the central bank to issue digital currency in the name of the central bank, and many agencies were suspected of pyramid schemes and fraud.
From the annual financing amount of the global digital currency and blockchain industry, it was only 2.11 million US dollars in 2012, but it surged to 490 million US dollars in 2015. Numerous startups and capitals have gathered among them. Many securities companies have already digital currency. And the blockchain industry is independent from the computer industry research, set up a special research team, equipped with researcher tracking, and regularly publish research reports.
At present, regardless of the amount of investment or the amount of investment, developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Europe are dominant. 83% of the amount is invested in the United States, 10% in Europe, and Asia only 4%.
Early capital invested more in hardware, but with the development of digital currency, more funds began to invest in the construction and operation of digital currency exchanges, which has risen to 22%.
It is precisely because of the increase in investment in exchanges and other fields, such as pyramid schemes and frauds. The Jiangsu Peix County Court found that the Markcoin organization was a pyramid scheme involving hundreds of millions of yuan. According to the Internet Marketing Guide issued by the Internet Finance Association of Jiangsu Province, Treasure Coins, Baichuan Coins, and Mark Coins are all suspected illegal pyramid schemes.
"The breadth and depth of digital currency trading has developed. It is impossible to completely exclude it. It must be incorporated into the management system and the legal and regulatory system. If it is not managed, it will only make its communication more concealed and unfavorable to supervision." Wan Hao, chief economist of the International Cooperation Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Times Weekly reporter.
In the global central bank's research on digital currency, the Chinese central bank is at the forefront. The People's Bank of China established a special research group to issue digital currency in 2014. In January 2016, the central bank held a digital currency seminar to further clarify the strategic objectives of the central bank to issue digital currency, do key technical research, study the multi-scenario application of digital currency, and strive to launch the digital currency issued by the central bank as soon as possible. At the end of the year, the central bank’s official website posted recruitment information to recruit digital currency professionals.
According to the January 2017, the digital bill trading platform launched by the central bank began testing. This platform is built with blockchain technology and runs legal digital currency.
"According to our understanding, the digital currency promoted by the central bank is still issued on the basis of central bank credit, but the technology, distribution and circulation framework of money supply utilizes blockchain technology." Digital currency researcher of a securities company in Shenzhen on the Times Weekly The reporter said.
"The issuance of digital currency by a single country will certainly be very fast, but in order to establish a digital currency alliance among many countries, the main obstacle is not technology but politics, which will be a long process." Zhang Chao told the Times Weekly reporter. .
In Wan Hao’s view: “The biggest benefit of digital currency is indeed to avoid currency spamming, but it is also a weakness. The global economy is constantly developing, commodities are prospering, transactions are prospering, inflation is inevitable, and some moderate inflation is the economy. The best state of development. If you return to a fixed amount of money, there will be no inflation, but will deflation occur?"
"Now I can't get rid of the dependence on the national credit guarantee currency for the time being." Wan Hao told the Times Weekly reporter.
(Editor: Cui Chen HX015)
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