International spot gold continued to rise on Friday (September 1). The US market hit a high of $1,328.80 per ounce, hitting a nine-and-a-half-month high, but there were signs of a fall in the session. Friday's high-profile non-agricultural data showed that US employment growth slowed in August, not as expected, employment increased by only 156,000 last month, and the average hourly wage rose only 3 cents or 0.1%. After the data was released, gold short-term jumped nearly 10 US dollars, the US dollar index fell 0.43%, but investors judged that these figures are unlikely to change the US interest rate hike prospects, the gold price fell back, the gains slowed down. The US finalized consumer confidence in August was 96.8, which is close to the high level since January this year, indicating that the American people are optimistic and confident.
The US dollar index rebounded after falling on Friday, rising 0.05% to 92.69 points. US stocks rose on Friday, the Dow rose 0.27% to 22006.33 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 2467.77 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.08% to 6433.74 points. Crude oil fell on Friday, the US oil index fell 0.42% to 47.03 yuan / barrel; the oil index fell 0.4% to 52.65 US dollars / barrel.
Non-agricultural data released on Friday is not as good as economists' forecasts, but analysts have some differences in how they affect the Fed's policy rate. The analysis pointed out that the August data is often published with weaker values ​​but the revised value will rise. The moderate growth of employment in August may reflect the seasonal factors and the shortage of skilled workers. Cohen, the White House economic adviser, also said that the employment report is not disappointing. One and a half hours after the data was released, the market basically recovered to the pre-announcement level. However, for gold, analysts still believe that gold prices will rise further after rising 4.1% in August. The upward trend in technology is already mature, the North Korean nuclear crisis continues to be uncertain, and the imminent debt ceiling between the US Congress and the White House must be resolved in late September to avoid technical defaults. These are the basic factors that support the rise of gold. From a technical perspective, Fibonacci is $1,297.50 per ounce. However, the gold's rising momentum is sufficient, and it is likely to cross the resistance of $1326.20 to reach the target of $1,350 per ounce. Gold is still likely to continue to push up to last year's peak of $1374.91 per ounce, as the breakout pattern on the daily chart is obvious and may attract more buying funds.
Non-agricultural disappointing salary growth in August was less than expected
According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Friday (September 1), the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 156,000 in August, which was less than market expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in August, breaking away from the previous 16 Year low.
Data show that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 156,000 in August, the market is expected to increase by 180,000, the previous value increased by 209,000; the US unemployment rate in August was 4.4%, expected to be 4.3%, the previous value was 4.3%. The US Department of Labor also revised the number of non-farm payrolls in July to an increase of 189,000.
The most eye-catching salary growth rate: the average monthly hourly wage rate in the United States increased by 0.1% in August, expected to increase by 0.2%, and the previous value increased by 0.3%. The average annual hourly wage rate in the United States increased by 2.5% in August, and the expected increase was 2.6%. For a rise of 2.5%.
In addition, the average weekly working hours in the United States in August was 34.4 hours, which is expected to be 34.5 hours, and the previous value was 34.5 hours. The US labor force participation rate in August was steady at 62.9%, and the previous value was 62.9%.
According to the US Department of Labor, the average number of new non-agricultural employment in the past three months was 185,000. In August, manufacturing, construction, professional, technical services, health care, and mining employment recorded an increase.
Outlook outlook
Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said gold prices will continue to rise further after rising 4.1% in August. He said that "the technical uptrend is very mature, North Korea's nuclear ambitions continue to be uncertain, and the imminent debt ceiling between Congress and the White House must be resolved in late September to avoid technical defaults." Butler said debt negotiations may form a dollar. Damage, combating dollar confidence, so gold will be cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Societe Generale analysts said that in terms of technology, Fibonacci is $1297.50 per ounce. However, gold's rising momentum is likely to cross the resistance of $1326.20 to reach $1,350 per ounce.
According to Edward Meir, an analyst at Fu Sitong International, "the obvious breakthrough model on the map is likely to gain more attractiveness and attract more funds."
Agency comments August non-agricultural employment report:
Gus Faucher, Chief Economist, PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
The report is relatively weak, but it has not changed the overall situation, that is, the economy and the labor market are in good condition. The data in August is often a bit weak, so it will definitely see an upward correction in the next few months. As the labor market tightens, wage growth will accelerate;
Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard
Non-agricultural non-agriculture in August is not “innocentâ€, there are some encouraging data in the construction industry and manufacturing industry; in addition, the employment increase in the service industry is also very significant; however, the average hourly wage increase is lower than expected; this data will inevitably affect the Fed 9 The month's decision to reduce QE; given the poor non-agricultural data in August, the Fed is unlikely to raise its outlook for the economy.
Brian Jacobsen, Senior Investment Strategist, Wells Fargo Fund Management
Most people are ignoring the August report; it is well known that all kinds of seasonal quirks can be disturbing, which makes it subject to many corrections; August monthly wage growth rate slightly decreased, only 2.5% year-on-year; manufacturing The industry average working time is the leading economic indicator, which also fell by 0.2 hours; I will not expect the Fed to raise interest rates unexpectedly in September.
Scott Anderson, Chief Economist, West Bank
The US non-agricultural data in August has no bright spots and is disappointing; the work of the Ministry of Labor has achieved certain results, but it is not as expected; this also raises the possibility of the Fed delaying interest rate hikes, that is, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in December. Reduced sex.
National Colleague Chief Trader Joe Colleran
The Fed will not be "stunned" by this non-agricultural report, and this report will not become "the last straw to overwhelm the camel." The Fed wants to raise interest rates, although the report will not increase their confidence, but it will not change their minds.
Dutch International Group
A poorly performing salary report will only make the market skeptical about the Fed’s current rate hike plan. Working in August is two working days more than in July, which may make the overall salary growth slightly downward, but in any case this will not satisfy the Fed.
However, we are still optimistic to see that as the labor market is strong, wage growth will pick up, which is a slow process. In addition, non-agricultural data did not perform as expected, but the Fed will not be too concerned because the United States is still in full employment.
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